Our outlook record
Every rent outlook on this site says where we think the median is heading and a likely range. We check ourselves two ways, and show the results whether they're good or bad.
1. Tested on the past
For every area with enough history we went back to each of the last eight quarters, made the outlook using only the figures known then, and compared it with what really happened one to four quarters later.
| State | Level | 1 qtr ahead | 2 qtrs | 3 qtrs | 4 qtrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queensland | whole state | 87.5% miss 1.5% · 8 | 100% miss 2.1% · 7 | 100% miss 2.3% · 6 | 100% miss 2.8% · 5 |
| Queensland | council areas | 75.1% miss 3.6% · 342 | 84.3% miss 3.7% · 300 | 87.5% miss 3.8% · 257 | 91.6% miss 4% · 214 |
| Queensland | suburbs | 79.2% miss 5.5% · 5,115 | 89.2% miss 5.7% · 4,471 | 92.3% miss 6.1% · 3,835 | 94.6% miss 6.4% · 3,190 |
% = how often the real figure landed in the likely range. Miss = the average gap between our middle figure and the real one. Then the number of tests. Last run 2026-11-04.
2. The live record
When a new quarter of figures comes out, we record the outlook for the next four quarters of every area on the site, with the date. Those are never moved, remade or deleted. When the real figure comes out, it's checked against what we said.
| State | Made from | Outlooks |
|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | Sep qtr 2026 | 1,796 |
| Queensland | Sep qtr 2026 | 2,780 |
Outlooks are estimates, not advice. The likely range is set so that about 8 in 10 real figures should land inside it; the tables above show how often they really do.